Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
