Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
