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China has sent its maritime law enforcement through the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and military drones past remote Japanese territory as China escalates strains following the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Tokyo but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the latest activity occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts the island as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An military assault by China would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the US and other partner nations including Japan, which has land just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was likely the maritime patrol, operating around the island over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones operating near Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are occasional, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other nations, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.